2H 2019 Bearish Bitcoin Projection

Updated: Jan 18, 2020

On August 26, 2019, despite a fantastic bullish run-up in the months prior and a plethora of bullish pundits calling for new highs, I predicted Bitcoin was it's 2nd bubble in as few years (the last one popped in 2017) and tweeted the following projection for Bitcoin:


Nearly two months later, on Oct 23, Bitcoin did land just $200 shy of my target:

Today, October 25, Bitcoin experienced a serious $1k+ pump on high volume. This was on the back of bullish news coming from China, where President Xi announced that China would embrace Blockchain technology as the future (which we already knew, but this more or less made it official). In reality for Bitcoin price, leveraged shorts had experienced a big increase at historical support (because the average investor tends to unknowingly buy tops and sell bottoms), and the overall market was "Extremely Fearful" based on social media sentiment. This is why yesterday I tweeted I was expecting a Bart Simpson pattern. "Bart" is the trading vernacular for a drastic price reversal that takes the shape of Bart Simpson's head (in this case, an upside down Bart), which we can see here:

The conditions mentioned before are ripe for a big short squeeze (seen above) - something that occurs regularly for Bitcoin. BUT long bull markets have also begun on the back of them (see early 2019), so they must be taken very seriously.

Here is where we are today (~$8600):

Technically, we are still in a downtrend...although this pump was very nice and the volume behind it can not be ignored. That said, I will need to see more from Bitcoin before I can become a bull again. Stay tuned on that.

Thanks for reading, good luck and God speed!