Updated Outlook: Feb 20, 2020
After a nice, long five week bullish run up to ~$10.5k, Bitcoin was unable to sustain the $10k+ level and hit a wall. The technical bullish price action has broken and, like water meeting a dam, as traders we must be fluid and adapt to new obstacles. At this point, it seems likely that Bitcoin will fall back to support around $8k, where it should also meet the parabolic curve once more. My theory all along has been that Bitcoin will make a slow climb along this curve for the next 1-2 years, which will lead into the biggest Altcoin bull market we've ever seen (not much of a benchmark there). How hard and far Bitcoin pumped off the parabolic trend line before falling back has always been the unknown to me. I believe the picture is more clear now and am trading the market as such. For more info on positions I take and trades made, you can always follow my open and free trade journal (see bottom).
I believe the intermediate bottom for Bitcoin was found in December 2019, the macro bottom December 2018, and that we are now in the process of a bull market leading into the Bitcoin block reward halving currently estimated for May 12, 2020.
I am trading Bitcoin as such, and with a bullish bias. How high will price go leading into May? Price targets for May are somewhat of a fluid thing, depending on many factors, but as of today I don't think $12,000-14k per Bitcoin is unreasonable to expect. Nor do I think $20k is out of the question at this point. It's too soon to know. What I do feel comfortable in saying is that the bottom of this intermediate bearish trend was likely found at $6.4k
Once ~$9.5k is taken, I expect Bitcoin to start making headlines again globally (“Bitcoin Halving Event – Get In Now Before It’s Too Late!!”) and for this news cycle effect to kick-start a FOMO event leading into May, on the back of another mini-parabola.
Of course, anyone who follows me knows that it’s stories like these where we need to look to EXIT Bitcoin as traders. But it’s also stories like these that lead to gigantic price advances.
I plan to trade this like a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event. I fully expect a strong run going into mid-to-late April, at which point I will begin to look for signs of weakness to exit any Long trade I am in (not including long-term spot positions).
Assuming any subsequent sell-off of Bitcoin after the halving event does not disrupt the parabolic curve, I would then expect the entire cryptocurrency market to follow suit, in a slow, healthy bull market to last for about 2-3 years (barring any global Black Swan event). In fact, I am already seeing signs that the total cryptocurrency market has bottomed and is turning the corner.
As such, I have also re-acquired Bitcoin spot and GBTC (Greyscale Bitcoin Investment Trust) positions previous sold, as well as added three Alt Coin positions for the long term. Additionally, I will look to actively begin trading Alt Coins this summer, 2020, assuming Bitcoin continues along its parabolic curve from above.
Further info on all of this can be found in my Trade Log, which is free and open to the public on Telegram here: https://t.me/BrentsTradeLog